以「美國優先」為核心，川普政府推動一系列關稅措施，包括對中國的25%懲罰性關稅、對鋼鐵與鋁產品實施全球性關稅，把北美自由貿易協定(NAFTA)改成美墨加協定(USMCA)，並在今年8月7日起，開始對全球各國實施對等關稅(Reciprocal Tariffs)，此政策旨在縮減美國貿易逆差、振興美國製造業，但也引發全球貿易摩擦與供應鏈不確定性。
川普關稅政策促使全球供應鏈再度重組，其趨勢包括生產基地再度轉移、供應鏈呈現多元化，鼓勵投資美國製造或近岸外包，以降低關稅與物流風險，此舉雖能提升供應鏈韌性，但也增加成本與管理複雜度，台積電赴美投資就是範例。
對等關稅讓美國進口平均關稅，由2024年的2.3%將增至約18%，雖川普聲稱關稅未造成通膨，但供應鏈混亂讓企業成本增加，通膨壓力正在累積，也會影響就業及出口的競爭力，未來經濟成長可能降低，而是否能減少美國貿易逆差額，也待觀察。
川普關稅正破壞現有世界貿易組織(WTO)機制，加劇美國貿易夥伴及盟友緊張關係，削弱以美國的國際領導力，促使中國與歐盟、東南亞及第三世界的聯盟合作，增加地緣政治與全球秩序重組的風險。
台灣外交空間受限，2024年對美貿易順差又高於日韓，面臨台幣升值及對等關稅高於日韓的多重擠壓，對全球經貿戰略秩序及定位，勢必重整與多元佈局，而美國製造業回流，引發生產自動化加速及供應鏈重置，這又是台灣企業的挑戰與機遇。
川普關稅政策是很現實的，我們必須重新思考：在動盪世界下，如何維持韌性。
Anchored in the “America First” principle, the Trump administration has implemented a series of tariff measures, including a 25% punitive tariff on Chinese goods, global tariffs on steel and aluminum, the replacement of NAFTA with the United States--Mexico--Canada Agreement (USMCA), and the launch of “Reciprocal Tariffs”. Although intended to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and revitalize domestic manufacturing, these actions have also fueled global trade frictions and increased supply chain uncertainty.
Trump’s tariff policy has accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains. Emerging trends include the relocation of production bases, diversification of sourcing strategies, and stronger incentives for reshoring to the U.S. or nearshoring to mitigate tariff and logistics risks. While these adjustments can enhance supply chain resilience, they also raise operating costs and add managerial complexity. TSMC’s investment in U.S. manufacturing exemplifies this shift.
With reciprocal tariffs in place, the average U.S. import tariff is projected to rise from 2.3% in 2024 to about 18%. Although Trump argues that tariffs have not contributed to inflation, supply chain disruptions are raising business costs and adding to inflationary pressure. This environment may weaken employment, diminish export competitiveness, and slow future economic growth. Whether the policy will meaningfully reduce the U.S. trade deficit remains uncertain.
The policy also challenges World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, straining relations with U.S. allies and trading partners while weakening America’s global leadership. At the same time, it could encourage closer cooperation among China, the European Union, Southeast Asia, and emerging economies--heightening geopolitical risks and accelerating the realignment of the global order.
For Taiwan, the implications are especially significant. In 2024, its trade surplus with the U.S. exceeded that of Japan and South Korea, but the island now faces dual pressures: an appreciating NTD and higher reciprocal tariffs relative to its regional peers. These factors call for a strategic reassessment of Taiwan’s global trade position and a stronger push for market diversification. In addition, the reshoring of U.S. manufacturing--along with advances in automation and supply chain realignment--presents both challenges and opportunities for the enterprises in Taiwan.
Trump’s tariff policy is highly pragmatic, and we must rethink how to maintain resilience in a turbulent world.
